This is in stark contrast to common sense, other polls, and mainstream media who all seem to be saying that the referendum will go the way of Britain remaining part of the EU.
When we ran the data through our BrandsEye Crowd technology to get to the heart of what people en masse were saying, we were very surprised, even shocked at the results. How is it possible that 56.9% of Brits, according to social media, are in favour of leaving the EU?
There can only be two explanations for this result:
- Social media, in this case is simply too skewed towards the outspoken Leave camp, or
- The popularity of the #Leave camp has been underestimated.
As we have seen in the USA with the rapid rise of both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, we should not underestimate both the voice and influence of social media. On the other hand, as we’ve seen with Hillary Clinton, the critical mass of the silent majority is still a big unknown. In this regard history would indicate that the shy Tories will go for the safe pragmatic option: Remain.
We’ve seen it before though: social media is often an exaggerated leading indicator of the direction in which the surprise will happen. In this case, I’m putting my bet onto the fact that the Leave camp will take more ground than anyone thought. Whether they can take enough to win the referendum; that is the question.
Interesting insights into referendum decision based on UK conversations on Twitter from the past week